The Summer of The Vaccine

The article was originally published in “The Musings Of A Politics Junkie & Closet Economist.” To read more, please visit the website.

Vaccine Rollout Is Vital to Greece And Other European Economies

We are the middle of spring and the summer appears to be around the corner…or more so, that is the feeling for those individuals anxious to see if international travel will return for the summer as well as the feeling for the many economies dependent on international tourism for its growth.

Greek Plea for Tourism

Greece’s announcement to scrap quarantine requirements for tourists from 32 countries who are vaccinated or test negative says everything about how the country wants to tap into the pent-up travel angst across the globe. Starting this week, tourists from across the European Union (EU) plus Israel, the U.K., the U.S., Serbia, and the United Arab Emirates can come to Greece without being placed in isolation on arrival — provided they meet the aforementioned conditions. The decision unsurprisingly comes right before Americans and British citizens make holiday plans for the summer and before the Eid holidays (in May and July) in the UAE.

Only Cyprus depends on tourism as an engine of its economy more than Greece. Tourism generally accounted for one-fifth to one-fourth of Greece’s pre-covid GDP, while accounting for nearly half of economic growth in 2018 and 2019 for Greece while tourism nonexistence in 2020 significantly contributed to the near-10% economic decline in Greek GDP in 2020. If anything, covid exposed Greek over-dependence on tourism. That said, economic reliance on international travel to the country cannot be changed before the summer of 2021.

The Greek announcement also highlights the important role vaccines will play in the economic future of numerous economies, particularly through the remainder of 2021. Numerous economies require a world where people feel safe to travel and interact with other individuals. Vaccination programs will either underwrite growth for some economies, especially in Europe — Italy, Portugal, and Spain will be as anxious as Greece and Cyprus — or leave some countries as collateral damage in the war against covid-19.

European Vaccine Rollout

The rollout of vaccines in Europe today struggles to find its way amid disagreements on which vaccines to procure and the high skepticism of the vaccine within the general public (clearly fueled by the public discussions by leaders on which vaccine to use). A decision by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to pause the roll-out of the Johnson & Johnson covid-19 vaccine coupled with the European pause with (and public deliberation between European authorities on the future use of) the AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine (albeit short) are major hurdles in pushing forward with vaccinations and re-introducing international travel.

It does not help that the Johnson & Johnson issue arose only after it was asked to help examine the blood clotting issues with the AstraZeneca vaccine. Secondly, any pause by one country obviously means other countries will follow, i.e. South Africa and Europe paused roll-out of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Lastly, Pfizer officials’ best estimates for production and distribution of the Pfizer vaccine cannot fill the gap created by delays and periodic suspensions of distribution for AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson. The Russian vaccine Sputnik V and the Chinese vaccine Sinopharm sadly still do not have buy-in across Europe and the U.S.

These challenges will fuel the anti-vaxxer sentiment across Europe (and the U.S.). Some polls and estimations suggest that one-third to half of the French population may be reluctant to take the covid-19 vaccine. Such statistics juxtaposed with “anti-vax” websites and platforms in the country demonstrate the uphill battle toward herd immunity via vaccination.

Persuading everyone to take a jab and then travel accordingly sounds daunting today. A successful effort may have to start first with reducing the conflation of public debates and politicking. Establish a threshold necessary for pausing distribution and follow it…the subjective nature of what is too much blood clotting has only confused people. The “stop and go” nature of distribution creates more fear than solving for it. Targeted campaigns and messaging coordinated across the E.U., the U.S. and the U.K. would go far as global take-up of the vaccine is key to the WORLD returning to some normality regarding international travel.

The truth of the matter is if governments cannot avoid stoking further worry and sidestep validating conspiracy theories while also showing empathy and concern for its citizens, then vaccine rollout, which clearly is an issue of both an individual’s perspective on the vaccine’s necessity and its safety, will remain in doubt and the economic fall-out will accordingly be palpable in some parts of Europe. The Greek announcement, at least, says it is confident in vaccinations…or is it simply an economic decision? Avoiding skepticism is not easy (as you can see).

The article was originally published in “The Musings Of A Politics Junkie & Closet Economist.” To read more, please visit the website.